Myself!

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=38156429&op=3&o=global&view=global&subj=1636080059&id=21005877

Techpost 3 – Google’s Future

“Google will have power next to God”

Simon Fraser University

Tech114 – Techpost3

Elvin Cheung Kam Yiu

July, 27^th, 2009

Long live the king! Google is truly the king of online search and internet marketing industry. Someone has said that, it’s only when the tide is out you come to know who was swimming naked, likewise the current financial turmoil has seen fall of giants, corporate empires like Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG etc. were destroyed within matter of months. But among these companies Google Inc. is standing proudly like king of the corporate jungle. The company is writing new laws of business success and innovation. Google maps, Orkut, Chrome, Google Docs, YouTube etc. are some of the jewels in its crown. This paper is a thorough analysis about prediction of Search Engines primarily Google’s future. I will divide the paper into three main parts, namely – Google milestones points in the year 2015 and 2020, and finally after forming a logical connection in-between the above two we will forecast the future of Google in the year 2029.

We have witnessed an impressive development of search technologies during the last decade. Although the search is getting innovative and user friendly, it should be noted that the old fashioned test search we learned to love with 1990′s is still around. We can see Google search results on white web pages, HTML style, and people continue to click on ads. The contemporary search engines like Google, Yahoo! and Ask are still around, and the only major newcomers on the map are Scandinavian Balder.com and Chinese Baidu, which offers keyword-based search facilities (Susanne Koch, www.pandia.com, 2007).

First Milestone: 2015

By 2015 MSN search or Window search will not be around. It’s a real possibility for Microsoft to buy Yahoo! and making it a subset of Windows Live, while keeping the Yahoo! search technology such as Inktomi and AlltheWeb. The engineers and researchers from Microsoft found a new home where there was more room for creativity than in the Microsoft mastodon (encarta.msn.com), and together the two teams managed to face some of the major problems search engines where facing those days: the size of the Web and the horrible amount of search engine spam (from web3.wordpress.com/2009/06/17, 2009).

By this time the search engine market will be more collaborated. Only the major players, Google and Microsoft, will rule the technology arena, in addition to some new and innovative companies. There will be a drastic improvement in the technology. Web 3.0 or semantic Web will rule the internet world. Search engines will not wait to be asked – they will be capable of tracking the conversation and providing with personalized search results (Ray Kurzweil, 2006). Search engines will run on semantic web, which will be more robust, reliable and extremely powerful in comparison with the normal web solutions.

Second Milestone: 2020

Till 2020 the future of search engines will become 3-Dimensional. People will be able to look their search with the help of 3-D components. It will be like is someone is searching for a colored television then his search result on Google will provide a 3-D live experience of touch and feel (from perspectives.3ds.com, 2009). Also most of the people will access internet from their mobile phones or other portable device. By this time the company will have 150,000 servers and counting (Larry Page, 2006) –that will enable it to do just about anything it wants with the Web. Google will primarily target the mobile search engine market to expand its business; there will also be freely available Google operating system, which will be based on open source technology. Also there is a possibility that Google search will be completely replaced with Google Brain, in the year 2020 (googlewatch.com); people won’t search the web anymore. They will talk with Google Search Engine that is what Google Brain is all about (from Googleblogs.com, 2009). Google Brain Search uses CADIE technology to index your brain, thus improving the speed and accuracy of memory retrieval. Some of the features of Google Brain are faster and more accurate memory retrieval, is brainwave detection such as putting the phone to your forehead and thinks your query, and eliminate tip of the tongue syndrome

Third Milestone: 2029

In 2005 at Googolplex, the famous historian George Dyson was told by an engineer that they are not scanning all books to be read by people in fact they are scanning them to be read by an AI. And we could construct a machine that is more intelligent than we can understand. This era will be ruled by artificial intelligence. Robots and android will be used to do all the mechanical work. This age will also be the performance will be measured in terms of fast and efficient search responses. During a interview in 2005, Technologists like Ray Kurzweil suggested that Strong AI which is an intelligent program capable of upgrading its own code would emerge from Google-like data mining rather than a robotics lab.

By this time Google would have finished digitizing and indexing every book, article, movie, TV show, and song ever created. This will be the time when humans will be imbedded with a smart chip and Google will be capable of telling the IP address, and GPS location of every wireless chip (from blogs.csmonitor.com/scitechblog/webtech, 2007). Privacy will become a cliché, and information will be freely available to everyone. For example, if a man lost is cat, then he can search for her exact location with the help of Google engine. Google will have power which will be next to God’s.

It is very hard to predict the future. Now a day’s things are changing so quickly that it is almost impossible to predict anything with accuracy. But one thing is for sure, whatever the future holds for Google and search engine technology, the trust will end up being stranger than fiction. The future will be bright and fast. Technology will make life easy for everyone. Google’s will face tough competition from new startups which can come up with new innovative technology which has the potential to revolutionize the search market. In order to maintain its competitive edge, Google has to update and renovate itself on a regular basis.

REFERENCES

Taylor Chris (2006). “Imagining the Google Future”. Referenced 20 July, 2009, from http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/01/01/8368125/index.htm

GoogleBlogs (2009). “Google Brain”. Referenced 20 July, 2009, from http://www.askchiefonline.com/google-brain-video-google-in-2020

Hen (2009). “Open Source 2020: An Alternative Future”. Referenced 22 July, from http://blog.generationjava.com/roller/bayard/entry/open-source-2020-an-alternative-future

Facebook Assignments – Samuel F.B Morse

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Morse

Techpost #2 – Google (History)

Google

Tech 114 – Tech Post #2

Elvin Cheung Kam Yiu

301087482 kyc25

Summary

This paper is a brief analysis of search engine technology, particularly Google. We will look at this technology from a historical perspective. This analysis will include discussion about the precedents of search engine technology, its current status and future predictions. In order to present this study as a comparative analysis, I have divided it into three historical time periods, namely Pre-industrial Period, Industrial Period and Post-industrial Period. The basic aim of this analysis is to study the changes related with search engine technology over the period and how it has affected the society as a whole. It is to be noted that throughout the paper Google will be synonyms to search engine technology.

Introduction

It has rightly been said that information is power. It gives the power to make changes, and it also plays an important role is assisting the ability to take decisions. But it is not easy to find the right kind of information at the right time; this is where the concept of search engines came into picture. A search engine is a remotely available program that lets you do keyword searches for information on the Internet. There are several types of search engine the search may cover titles of documents, URLs, headers, or the full text (Google Dictionary). But just because search engines use internet as their platform does not lessens the contribution of earlier search approaches.

Pre-Industrial Period (up to 1765 A.D.)

The first or pre-industrial phase was a very long period of equilibrium when information flow was limited by simple tools and weak machines. This was a period where scientific experiments were not common and religious thoughts and beliefs dominated the scenario. Information search and flow was mainly confined to libraries and hard bound journals. The books and research papers of this period have references, which can be thinking of as links going out. People can track the source of original information by tracking these references. The first legal use of article-references was seen in court cases. In order to you a trusted reference, people used to take help of “The Citation Index”, which inverts the database of links and was able to find out which paper was referenced more frequently by other researchers while writing their paper. This idea which was relatively new at that time was developed by legal professions of countries which followed common law, like United States and England, in order to note and keep track of reported judicial decisions. One such example of such Index in USA is “Shepard’s Citations”. All the referenced cases were referred, affirmed, overruled or criticized by a legal citer. If a particular case if followed, then it will become as a “Leading Case” and was more frequently cited. Apart from covering judicial decision Shepard’s Citations also covered law review articles.

Industrial Period (18^th and the early 19^th centuries)

The second or industrial phase was very short period of non-equilibrium that ignited with explosive force when powerful new machines temporarily lifted all limits to growth. This period was dominated by innovation in manufacturing industry which was started with the invention of steam engine, which in turn made a big contribution in speeding up the flow of information. Apart from searching and tracking the source of information from books and articles, Encyclopedia and Britannica were used to search for any related information. Search was fragmented and mainly confined to the reach of elite or scholar class. With the advancement and ease of travel, people also used educational tours to visit different countries and places to track the source of information. Until this period the search technology was confined to legal and scientific environment with little or no use by common public.

Post-Industrial Period (19^th century – Till date)

As early as 1956, “white-collar” workers had outnumbered “blue-collar” workers, marking the passage from an industrial to a “postindustrial” era. This is the period where High-technology industries like aerospace, biological engineering, and especially electronics and computers defined the business frontier. The world became truly globalized and the hunger for information grew like never before. Computers played a very important role in revolutionizing the flow of information. The Internet and World-Wide Web (post 1991) are the greatest telecommunication of post-industrial period.. People begin to use internet to search for digitized information. It was very quick, easy and efficient. But the search options were still fragmented and lacked semantics. It was quite troublesome to get specific information on a particular topic. But this changed in 1996 when Larry Page and Sergey Brin developed a reliable and efficient online search engine named Google. Google indexed web pages were based on a formula that could produce improved results based on different formulas, including a way that could produce rank-wise search results depending upon the relevance to the searched topic, and the frequency by which the page was seen on other search.  It worked on “SEO” or search engine optimization, which used web-spiders and crawlers to make search more comprehensive.

Conclusion

At present Google is dominating the search engine market, but there is tough competition from other players in the industry. The future will be dominated by the technologies which are capable of providing search on mobile-platform; bioinformatics search options which are based on emotional understanding on machines. Larry Page, one of the founders of Google, once said that  Google’s toughest competition are small innovative startups , which can come up with new and improved search technique with the potential to conquer the market. Google is expanding its services by diversifying its services. It is providing an email service ‘Gmail’, a social community named as ‘Orkut’, a software application for organizing and editing digital photos ‘Picasa’, facility to view maps and other imagery captured directly from the satellites ‘Google Maps’ etc. It will be an interesting battle in the virtual market, which in the end will be beneficial not only for the customers but also for industry as a whole.

References

Duncan, C. Richard (1996). “The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post Industrial Stone Age”. Referenced 5 July, 2009, from

http://dieoff.org/page125.htm

Macgregor, Douglas A. (2001).“Resurrecting transformation for the post-industrial era”. Referenced 5 July, 2009, from

http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-3330925_ITM

Shannon Ross (2007). “The History of the Net”. Referenced 5 July, 2009, from

http://www.yourhtmlsource.com/starthere/historyofthenet.html